Threat Awareness and Trends

Threat awareness is a critical part of annual security training. Effectively countering threats begins with understanding the threats the U.S faces every day.

Three key U.S. government assessments help us understand the scope, complexity, and persistence of threats confronting the United States: the Defense Counterintelligence and Security Agency (DCSA) Protecting U.S. Technologies in the Cleared Industrial Base; the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Homeland Threat Assessment; and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) Annual Threat Assessment.

Taken together, these reports underscore a central reality: foreign adversaries, criminal networks, and extremist actors are increasingly interconnected, technologically enabled, and willing to exploit U.S. vulnerabilities across domains—from cyber and supply chains to public discourse and physical infrastructure.

DCSA: Targeting U.S. Technologies

DCSA’s Targeting U.S. Technologies report assesses how foreign intelligence entities (FIEs) and other adversaries target the U.S. cleared industrial base and informs us about foreign efforts to compromise technology, classified information, and personnel.

KEY FINDINGS

Rising Threat Volume: Cleared contractor facilities report tens of thousands of suspicious contacts annually, reflecting sustained and persistent attempts to illicitly access sensitive and classified information and technologies.

Targeted Technologies: The most frequently targeted technologies include software, electronics, and aeronautic systems—collectively accounting for over one-third of all reports. Adversaries also pursue microelectronics, AI tools, advanced materials, and export-controlled devices.

Primary Geographical Threat Sources: Entities from the East Asia and Pacific region and the Near East account for the largest share of reported incidents—roughly 62% of all targeting activity.

Evolving Collection Methods: Adversaries increasingly rely on non-traditional collectors, including business partnerships, academic collaboration, supply chains, cyber intrusions, and recruitment of insiders. These methods blur the line between legitimate interactions and covert collection.

Why does this matter? Technological superiority underpins U.S. military readiness and economic strength. Successful exploitation of cleared industry shortens adversary development timelines, erodes deterrence, and introduces long-term strategic risk.

DHS: Homeland Threat Assessment

The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Homeland Threat Assessment (HTA) examines risks directly affecting the U.S. population and domestic systems—from terrorism to drug trafficking and critical infrastructure attacks.

TOP THREAT AREAS

Terrorism & Violent Extremism: The assessment finds that the overall terrorism threat is expected to remain high, driven by domestic sociopolitical dynamics and international conflicts. Lone actors and small cells continue posing the most immediate risks.

Illegal Drugs & Transnational Crime: Transnational criminal organizations trafficking illegal drugs—especially fentanyl and synthetic opioids—are a severe public safety and national risk.

Influence Operations & Transnational Repression: Foreign state actors use digital platforms and social networks to influence U.S. public opinion, target communities, and undermine trust in institutions.

Border & Immigration Security: While migrant encounters have declined, the risk of individuals posing security threats entering through irregular channels remains a focus of DHS screening and vetting efforts.

Critical Infrastructure Security: Cyber-attacks, physical threats, and preparation for disruptive operations against critical infrastructure persist as priority concerns. Nation-state actors such as China, Russia, and Iran remain principal threats.

DNI: Annual Threat Assessment

The Director of National Intelligence (DNI) Annual Threat Assessment provides a comprehensive evaluation of the most direct and serious threats to U.S. national security.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

Major State Adversaries:

• China is described as the most comprehensive military and cyber threat, with ambitions to expand regional power and surpass U.S. technological leadership, including in artificial intelligence.
• Russia is assessed as leveraging its ongoing war in Ukraine and maintaining capabilities that could heighten tensions with NATO.
• Iran continues to pursue regional influence with missile and proxy capabilities, though it is not currently rebuilding a nuclear weapons program.
• North Korea advances its strategic weapons and cyber capabilities, posing risks to U.S. allies and interests in the region.

Transnational Criminal Organizations (TCOs): Transnational criminal groups—especially drug cartels—are identified as immediate threats to public safety, with illicit fentanyl and synthetic opioids linked to tens of thousands of U.S. deaths.

Adversarial Cooperation: The assessment notes growing cooperation among these major adversaries, strengthening their collective capabilities and resilience against Western strategies.

Big Picture Threat Awareness

COMMON THEMES

Despite differing missions, the DCSA, DHS, and DNI assessments converge on several critical themes:

Threats are multi-domain: Cyber, economic, ideological, physical, and informational threats are deeply interconnected and reinforce one another.

Technology is both an asset and a vulnerability: AI, cyber tools, and global connectivity accelerate both innovation and exploitation.

State and non-state actors both matter: From sophisticated foreign intelligence services to lone extremists and criminal networks, adversaries exploit vulnerabilities at home and abroad.

Prevention depends on partnership: Effective risk mitigation requires coordination across government agencies, the defense industrial base, academia, private sector partners, and local stakeholders.

LOOKING AHEAD: EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES AND CHALLENGES

Emerging technologies are expected to remain the most attractive targets for adversaries. Artificial intelligence, microelectronics, quantum computing, space systems, advanced manufacturing, and critical software supply chains are increasingly sought after for their military, economic, and strategic value.

Protecting national security will require sustained vigilance, stronger partnerships, and adaptive security strategies across government and industry.

Resources and Additional Learning

• DCSA Methods of Operation and Methods of Contact (MCMO)
• 2025 DNI Annual Threat Assessment
• 2025 DHS Homeland Threat Assessment
• DCSA Counterintelligence Trend Analysis Reports

As always, if you have any questions…ask your FSO! Your company’s FSO is the best person to help you navigate any questions you have about security compliance, briefing, and reporting requirements.