Threat Awareness and Trends

Threat awareness is a critical part of annual security training. Effectively countering threats begins with understanding the threats the U.S faces every day.
 
Three key U.S. government assessments help us understand the scope, complexity, and persistence of threats confronting the United States. The Defense Counterintelligence and Security Agency (DCSA) Protecting U.S. Technologies in the Cleared Industrial Base highlights how foreign actors target U.S. technologies and cleared industry; The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Homeland Threat Assessment outlines risks to public safety and critical infrastructure; and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) Annual Threat Assessment provides a global assessment of threats to U.S. national security.
 
Taken together, these reports underscore a central reality: foreign adversaries, criminal networks, and extremist actors are increasingly interconnected, technologically enabled, and willing to exploit U.S. vulnerabilities across domains—from cyber and supply chains to public discourse and physical infrastructure. They paint a picture of a strategic environment that is interconnected, multifaceted, and evolving more rapidly than many traditional policy responses. Below, we break down the important threat trends.
 
DCSA: Targeting U.S. Technologies
 
DCSA’s Targeting U.S. Technologies: A Report of Threats to Cleared Industry report assesses how foreign intelligence entities (FIEs) and other adversaries target the U.S. cleared industrial base (the network of companies, organizations, and research institutions that handle classified or sensitive information and technologies) and informs us about foreign efforts to compromise technology, classified information, and personnel.
 
KEY FINDINGS
 
Rising Threat Volume: Cleared contractor facilities report tens of thousands of suspicious contacts annually, reflecting sustained and persistent attempts to illicitly access sensitive and classified information and technologies.
 
Targeted Technologies: The most frequently targeted technologies include software, electronics, and aeronautic systems — collectively accounting for over one-third of all reports. Adversaries also pursue microelectronics, AI tools, advanced materials, and export-controlled devices. These remain prime targets due to their military and commercial value.
 
Primary Geographical Threat Sources: Entities from the East Asia and Pacific region and the Near East account for the largest share of reported incidents — roughly 62% of all targeting activity. These actors leverage formal and informal collection methods to acquire sensitive technologies.
 
Evolving Collection Methods: Adversaries increasingly rely on non-traditional collectors, including business partnerships, academic collaboration, supply chains, cyber intrusions, and recruitment of insiders. Foreign actors use a range of tactics including traditional espionage, supply chain exploitation, cyber intrusions, and non-traditional means such as employment recruitment, academic exchanges, and commercial partnerships. These methods blur the line between legitimate interactions and covert collection.
 
Why does this matter? Technological superiority underpins U.S. military readiness and economic strength. Successful exploitation of cleared industry shortens adversary development timelines, erodes deterrence, and introduces long-term strategic risk.
 
 
DHS: Homeland Threat Assessment
The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Homeland Threat Assessment (HTA) examines risks directly affecting the U.S. population and domestic systems — from terrorism to drug trafficking and critical infrastructure attacks. It serves as a strategic overview of the nation’s security landscape to help us understand the evolving threat environment so we can better prepare for, prevent, and respond to risks to public safety and national security.
 
TOP THREAT AREAS

Terrorism & Violent Extremism: The assessment finds that the overall terrorism threat is expected to remain high, driven by domestic sociopolitical dynamics and international conflicts. Lone actors and small cells continue posing the most immediate risks, while extremist groups retain intent and capability to inspire or execute attacks on U.S. soil.
 
Illegal Drugs & Transnational Crime: Transnational criminal organizations trafficking illegal drugs — especially fentanyl and synthetic opioids — are a severe public safety and national risk. Seizures have increased significantly, and efforts are ongoing to enhance detection technologies and enforcement actions.
 
Influence Operations & Transnational Repression: Foreign state actors use digital platforms and social networks to influence U.S. public opinion, target communities, and undermine trust in institutions. These influence campaigns increasingly coincide with strategic geopolitical tensions.
 
Border & Immigration Security: While migrant encounters have declined, the risk of individuals posing security threats entering through irregular channels remains a focus of DHS screening and vetting efforts.
 
Critical Infrastructure Security: Cyber-attacks, physical threats, and preparation for disruptive operations against critical infrastructure — power grids, communications networks, and transportation systems — persist as priority concerns. Nation-state actors such as China, Russia, and Iran remain principal threats, alongside cybercriminal groups.
 
DNI: Annual Threat Assessment
The Director of National Intelligence (DNI) Annual Threat Assessment provides a comprehensive evaluation of the most direct and serious threats to U.S. national security. It informs us about evolving global risks so that informed strategic decisions can be made to protect American lives and interests at home and abroad.
 
KEY TAKEAWAYS
Diverse and Intensifying Threat Environment: The assessment highlights a broad spectrum of threats posed by both state and non-state actors that target U.S. citizens, critical infrastructure, economic strength, and government institutions.
 
Major State Adversaries: The report identifies China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea as the principal state actors challenging U.S. interests:

• China is described as the most comprehensive military and cyber threat, with ambitions to expand regional power and surpass U.S. technological leadership, including in artificial intelligence.
• Russia is assessed as leveraging its ongoing war in Ukraine and maintaining capabilities that could heighten tensions with NATO.
• Iran continues to pursue regional influence with missile and proxy capabilities, though it is not currently rebuilding a nuclear weapons program.
• North Korea advances its strategic weapons and cyber capabilities, posing risks to U.S. allies and interests in the region.

 
Transnational Criminal Organizations (TCOs): Transnational criminal groups — especially drug cartels — are identified as immediate threats to public safety, with illicit fentanyl and synthetic opioids linked to tens of thousands of U.S. deaths and significant social harm. These groups also exploit smuggling networks that contribute to irregular migration pressures.
 
Traditional Terrorism: Islamist extremist groups such as ISIS and al-Qa’ida remain active threats, with affiliates continuing to plan and inspire attacks against Western targets, including the United States.
 
Adversarial Cooperation: The assessment notes growing cooperation among these major adversaries, strengthening their collective capabilities and resilience against Western strategies, which can amplify threats to U.S. security.
 
Big Picture Threat Awareness
 
COMMON THEMES
Despite differing missions, the DCSA, DHS, and DNI assessments converge on several critical themes:
 
Threats are multi-domain: Cyber, economic, ideological, physical, and informational threats are deeply interconnected and reinforce one another.
 
Technology is both an asset and a vulnerability: AI, cyber tools, and global connectivity accelerate both innovation and exploitation.
 
State and non-state actors both matter: From sophisticated foreign intelligence services to lone extremists and criminal networks, adversaries exploit vulnerabilities at home and abroad. Non-traditional actors matter (criminal networks, lone offenders, insiders, and influence operators) play increasingly prominent roles.
 
Prevention depends on partnership: Effective risk mitigation requires coordination and collaboration is critical. Government agencies, the defense industrial base, academia, private sector partners, and local stakeholders must coordinate intelligence sharing, risk mitigation, and resilience planning across all levels of society.
 
LOOKING AHEAD: EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES AND CHALLENGES
Emerging technologies are expected to remain the most attractive targets for adversaries. Artificial intelligence, microelectronics, quantum computing, space systems, advanced manufacturing, and critical software supply chains are increasingly sought after for their military, economic, and strategic value.
 
At the same time, efforts to protect these technologies will be challenged by the growing sophistication of cyber operations, the use of trusted insiders and non-traditional collectors, and the difficulty of distinguishing legitimate collaboration from illicit technology transfer. Rapid innovation cycles, globalized supply chains, and the convergence of cyber and physical threats will further complicate detection and prevention.
 
Protecting national security will require Sustained vigilance, stronger partnerships, and adaptive security strategies across government and industry. We will need to implement holistic security strategies that address modern threats with an integrated approach that incorporates:

• Stronger counterintelligence and insider threat awareness
• Resilient critical infrastructure and cybersecurity defenses and best practice
• Early detection of influence and disinformation campaigns
• Community-based prevention and sustained collaboration across federal, state, local, private-sector, and industry contractor partners

 
CONCLUSION
As these reports collectively make clear, the threat environment facing the United States is persistent rather than episodic and expected to continue. The DCSA, DHS, and DNI assessments together offer a comprehensive picture of the challenges ahead. From foreign intelligence targeting U.S. technologies, to criminal and extremist threats at home, to strategic competition abroad, the risks facing the nation are interconnected and evolving. Awareness, preparedness, and collaboration remain the most effective tools for safeguarding U.S. security and resilience in 2026 and beyond.

Resources and Additional Learning:
DCSA Methods of Operation and Methods of Contact (MCMO)
2025 DNI Annual Threat Assessment
2025 DHS Homeland Threat Assessment
DCSA Counterintelligence Trend Analysis Reports
CDSE Thwarting the Enemy
DoD Annual Security Awareness Refresher
Counterintelligence Awareness and Security Briefing
 
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